Filling Out My VCT Americas Stage 2 Playoff Bracket
Playoffs open Thursday with NRG and 100 Thieves sitting pretty on byes, and G2 and EG getting the worst possible reward for grinding through play-ins.
NRG and 100 Thieves come out of Americas Stage 2. I'll say it now so I can be wrong about it in public later.
The Bye Round Isn't Really a Round
NRG and 100 Thieves group-stomped their way to a Round 1 bye, and that's the whole story of why I like them. NRG swept EG in week four and didn't look like they were trying that hard to do it. A full extra day watching Thursday's losers limp into an elimination match Friday is not nothing this deep into a season.
Thursday's Actual Games
LOUD vs FURIA and LEVIATÁN vs MIBR open things up. I keep coming back to zekken's week two for MIBR, a genuinely perfect stretch of Valorant, and I'm tempted to ride it into an upset. I'm not doing it. LEVIATÁN in three. LOUD-FURIA is the one I'd actually watch live. 100 Thieves beat LOUD to close group play and it was closer than the record suggests, so I don't trust LOUD's floor right now. FURIA in three, and I'll be annoyed with myself if I'm wrong.
The Lower Bracket Is Where Seasons Go to Die
G2 beating ENVY 2-1 on Sunday should have felt like a relief. Instead it drops them straight into a lower bracket against whoever loses Thursday, same for EG after their win over KRÜ. That's the cruelest part of double elimination: survive play-ins and Riot rewards you with the hardest possible road to São Paulo. I don't think either team makes it out.
Where I Land
NRG and 100 Thieves reach the upper final on the back of that bye, and I'll take NRG in that one, mostly on the strength of how automatic they've looked since week four. NRG and 100 Thieves to Shanghai. Ask me again after Thursday.